I have belonged to a certain Steeler group for 14 years. We are small, have about 25 members and this is on the home page.
MEMBERSHIP IS NOW CLOSED, EXCEPT TO SELECTED INVITED INDIVIDUALS. The person who started this group is a football historian and draft time is his time, he always gives us a knock down of what he thinks will happen and why. It is very interesting and just fun so I thought I would share with fellow members of SA, let's track it and see how he does.
As you know, I think that mock drafts on the whole aren't worth the paper they are written on - trades, reaches, surprises and steals always render them useless. What I do instead is I look at each team from their own perspective and their needs and try to match teams up, and I also look to analyse what a team might do in a trade, giving the options that I think will be presented to the teams when they are on the clock on Saturday. No one can accurately predict with any confidence what will happen, so don't take this that seriously.
This is all my own work, though I have been listening out for gossip too. It can be a useful exercise though as things that aren't apparent to you on the surface can come out here as you go through it team by team, option by option. The players you see are in what I believe is the order of preference and as usual we will deal with the Steelers by themselves later.
So here we go, even at this late stage things aren't concrete and by issuing this today I miss out on the best 48 hours where I get to hear about teams real intentions from people in the know. I will look to update and amend things if any more trades are made before Saturday or if I hear anything else.
Some of this will be right, some of this will be very wrong....read on.
1. OAKLAND: Picks (in order of preference or likelihood as far as I can
ascertain) - JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU, Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech,
Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame.
Despite Al Davis's unpredictability on draft day, it would be a stunner
if it was not one of these guys
2. DETROIT: Picks - Johnson, Russell, Quinn, Joe Thomas, T Wisconsin,
Trade down and pick Gaines Adams, DE Clemson.
Now, despite his history with WR's, Matt Millen would be completely
justified in picking Calvin Johnson for the simple fact that it is the
right thing to do because he is the best player in the draft. If he
wants to trade, Millen must trade before he makes the pick, otherwise
the offers will reduce dramatically
3. CLEVELAND: Picks - Quinn, Thomas or Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
This is a very tough pick for the Browns, knowing that their heads are
on the block do Crennell and Phil Savage pick their QBOTF again with
local boy Quinn or do they gamble on greatness it Peterson, even though
he is injury prone and they are totally jinxed when it comes to their
top picks getting injured? If I were them and he were there I would pick
Thomas, but I just have a feeling that it will be Peterson.
4. TAMPA BAY: Picks - Adams, Thomas, Trade up for Johnson, Peterson,
Trade down for LaRon Landry, S LSU, Amobi Okoye, DE Louisville.
Why are the Bucs looking to trade up for more offense? They need to
rebuild an aging defense first.
5. ARIZONA: Picks - Thomas, Adams, Okoye, Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas,
Trade down for Levi Brown
Thomas would be a perfect pickup here, I wonder if they would go after
Peterson if he gets this far? They would look at DT if they were pushed
but I think they would look to trade down if Thomas were off the board.
6. WASHINGTON: Picks - Okoye. Trade up for Johnson, trade down for more
picks and depth
They need picks, so a trade down would make more sense than a trade up.
I suspect Okoye would be a pick here but I think they will move out of
this spot one way or another.
7. MINNESOTA: Picks - Adams, Peterson, Quinn if he were to get this far.
Tough spot for the Vikings especially if Adams and Quinn are gone.
Peterson is a possibility if he gets this far but they could look to
trade down. Peterson would be a gamble with the Vikings set with Chester
Taylor and Brad Childress on the hotseat.
8. ATLANTA (from Houston): Picks - Landry, Okoye if he falls, Levi Brown
T Penn State, Alan Branch, DT Michigan
The Falcons would pick Landry if he got this far, watch for them to get
bigger on both sides of the line though, Petrino coached Okoye in
college do that would be an interesting pick but I don't think he would
get this far. Keep an eye on them, if Johnson somehow gets past the
first couple of picks they could be interested in going up to get him
9. MIAMI: Picks - Brown or Branch, maybe trade up for a QB if Quinn
escapes the top 5.
Why the Dolphins are pursuing Trent Green who is nothing more than a
stopgap at this stage of his career is anyone's guess. Brown would be a
10. HOUSTON (from Atlanta): Picks - Brown, Branch, CB's Leon Hall of
Michigan and Darrelle Revis of Pittsburgh. Trade down.
Brown would be a good fit here, they may look to go up and get Peterson
if he gets outside the top 7 picks.
11. SAN FRANCISCO: Picks - Landry if he falls, Adam Carriker, DE
Nebraska, Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi, Branch
Now we begin to see different names come up. Carriker or Willis would be
good picks, I can't see them going offense here unless they have an
interest in a falling Levi Brown.
12. BUFFALO: Picks - Willis, Hall or Revis. Marshawn Lynch, RB
California. Trade up for Peterson
The Bills should hit on a major need here, it might be a little high for
Lynch but Willis or a corner would be perfect.
13. ST. LOUIS: Picks - Branch, Carriker, Revis or Hall, Jamaal Anderson,
DE Arkansas, Paul Pozluzny, LB Penn State, Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida
Branch is a gamble at this point, but I think the Rams would go for it,
Carriker would be safer and Revis would be a nice addition and they
could always use LB help.
14. CAROLINA: Picks - Willis, Reggie Nelson, S Florida, Greg Olsen, TE
Miami Trade up or down.
This is a tough one, they could be trade candidates here. I think it's
too early for Olsen but we'll see.
15. PITTSBURGH - We'll deal with them later :-)
16. GREEN BAY: Picks - Lynch, Olsen, Nelson, Ted Ginn, WR Ohio State,
Robert Meachem, WR Tennessee, Dewayne Bowe, WR LSU
Lynch is the obvious pick, receiver would help but this might be a
little high, safety is also a need.
17. JACKSONVILLE: Picks - Nelson, Anderson at DE, Jarvis Moss, DE
Florida, Pozluzny or Timmons at OLB, Aaron Ross, DB Texas
The Jags are in a neat spot here, I think they could get value at this
pick with a defender on the fall, especially if Anderson or either of
the OLB's are there. It is important they don't blow this pick.
18. CINCINNATI: Picks - Branch or Revis if they fall, Ross, Pozluzny or
In short, if they don't pick the best defender without a criminal record
they should be barred from future drafts.
19. TENNESSEE: Picks - Any receiver, Lynch if he gets this far, a
corner. Any of the DE's previously mentioned, Trade down for better
To give Young a weapon or two would be nice here, Ginn would be
interesting but a Pacman replacement would also be useful.
20. N.Y. GIANTS: Picks - Joe Staley, T Central Michigan, Jon Beason, ILB
Miami, Timmons, Ross at CB, WR.
Staley makes sense about here, Ross would be decent value too.
21. DENVER: Picks - Pass rush upgrade so any of the DE's, Moss would be
a good fit here, Staley, Anthony Spencer, DE Purdue, Michael Griffin, DB
Texas. Trade up for a WR.
You never can tell with Shanahan, DE would be good but he may look to
22. DALLAS: Picks - DB, Griffin or Brandon Merriweather, S Miami,
Staley, WR if a good one gets this far.
I think it will be Merriweather here.
23. KANSAS CITY: Picks- Staley, Justin Blalock, G/T Texas, Receiver if
one gets this far or Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC, DL or CB if a good one is
They need OL help desperately but it's Carl Peterson we're dealing with
here, so he won't pick an OL even if he had a gun to his head. They will
probably burn this pick on a mediocre corner or DL.
24. NEW ENGLAND (from Seattle): Picks - DB here with Nelson,
Merriweather, Griffin or Ross, LB with Beason or David Harris, ILB
Michigan, Brian Leonard , RB Rutgers, trade up if they like someone who
is falling - they have the ammo to do so.
It will be defense and it will be Harris or a DB
25. N.Y.JETS: Picks - Spencer at OLB or a falling DL, this could be a
good spot for a DB. Keep an eye on Olsen if he gets this far.
They should have enough to work with in this spot to get some value,
especially at DB or OLB.
26. PHILADELPHIA: Picks - A safety, Beason, Harris at LB
Safety is a major need for them so expect one to go here. They may have
an interest in Leonard here too.
27. NEW ORLEANS: Picks - DT, perhaps Justin Harrell, Tennessee, Beason
or Harris, a corner like Eric Wright, UNLV or Chris Houston, Arkansas.
The Saints may look to get out of round one, they are in a spot where
they can get good value in a trade and pick up extra picks. They don't
need a DB after the signing of Jason David from the Colts.
28. NEW ENGLAND: Picks - Anyone of the players mentioned at 24, throw in
Marcus McCauley CB Fresno State here too.
As above, it should be defense. David Harris could be the man.
29. BALTIMORE: Picks - OL with Blalock, Ryan Khalil, C USC, Tony Ugoh, T
Arkansas, CB with the above mentioned names, if someone like Spencer or
Staley will fall they will leap all over them.
They are past masters at this, they have their needs but will pick the
best available guy on the board if one falls to them.
30. SAN DIEGO: Picks - Receiver - Ginn if he gets this far, other guys
towards the second round include Jarrett and Steve Smith of USC, Anthony
Gonzalez of Ohio State. Best available safety or LB could factor in to
this equation too.
Interesting spot, especially if they decide to move Michael Turner this
weekend for more picks.
31. CHICAGO: Picks - Harrell at DT, any OLB so they can move Lance
Briggs, WR or best available falling offensive player.
Tough spot for the Bears which is why moving Briggs might make sense as
it will get them up into prime DT and OLB territory.
32. INDIANAPOLIS: Picks - Corner with someone like Tanard Jackson,
Syracuse, Anything at LB or DT, WR with one of the above mentioned might
also be tempting.OL with Ben Grubbs, G Auburn, Blalock.
The champs need corner help but don't rule out a curveball here
especially if they can get value at receiver.