I don't think anybody is saying Luck is better then Ben right now as an NFL QB....But looking at them as QB prospects coming out of college and yes I agree Luck was more talented as a QB prospect then Ben...But that doesn't mean Luck will end up being the better NFL QB......To early to tell on how good or great Andrew Luck will become....But the potential is there....Originally Posted by Real Deal Steel
Would I do a straight up one for one trade of Ben for Luck at this point in time?? Hell yeah, that's a no brainer.
I think QBR is a great statistic
QB Rating is the flawed stat that only takes total passing stats into account (yards, tds, int, comp %)
QBR takes situational football into account, mobility, rushing, 3rd downs, red zone, etc
Luck offsets his INT because he is the best scrambler in the NFL. He's like Aaron Rodgers in that regard.
Luck also has a much higher Total EPA (Clutch weighted points expected added). Luck is 5th in the league, behind Brady, Peyton, Rodgers, and Ryan... he's doing this as a rookie, and since he was pretty much the most highly regarded QB prospect ever... it's not like it's a fluke.
Luck is 5th in QB PAR (Points above replacement), Ben is 13th
Ben has the better Pass EPA, as you would expect from level of experience (Luck 18 INTs, lack of experience).... but when you look at the total package of Luck's skills... it's obvious that he is more talented then Ben... it's only a matter of time before the results show he's the better QB.
Peyton threw 23 picks as a rookie.
Luck has thrown twice as many passes this year (537 w/ 3 games left), than Ben threw in his first 2 seasons combined (563)
Ben rookie season
11 INTs in 295 Attempts
3.7 percent INT rate per pass
Ben 1st 2 seasons combined
20 INT in 563 Attempts
3.5 percent INT rate per pass
Luck rookie season
18 INTs in 537
3.3 percent INT rate per pass
For all you, "Luck has 18 Int!!!!" people... you just got owned.
I posted their INT percentage and TD percentage in my post......Ben's was 3.7 his rookie year and Luck's is 3.4 this year....Not much of a difference.......Ben's TD percentage was 5.8 his rookie year and Luck's 3.4.....Nobody got owned....lol
While you talk about Ben not throwing as much as Luck...Factor in the reasons why......Plus if Ben had then he could have thrown 30 TD passes his rookie and put the stats like some of these rookie QB's have been posting lately.....Don't discard what Ben did his first couple years in the league.....Ben threw 17 TD's passes his first two years with not even having 300 pass attempts....
Go ahead and love the QBR all you want its flawed just like the NFL passer rating.....You babbled on about situational football but Ben has been money on 3rd down all year.......
I agree with you that Luck was the better QB prospect when look at pure talent.....But Luck is still 13 games into his rookie year......
Last edited by Black@Gold Forever32; 12-14-2012 at 02:58 PM.
Ben played on a contender, with a hall of fame running back in his rookie year. His opportunity to throw TDs was far easier. Wouldn't you agree? You seem to be missing the point. If Ben had the opportunity to throw more, the defenses he faced as a rookie would've been more geared towards that, and thus more difficult. You know that the Bettis/Parker, Oline, ground game in Ben's rookie year took a ton of pressure off of him. It kept Safeties in the box, teams had to always play the run first. Andrew Luck doesn't have that benefit... Andrew Luck is the focus of the defense.
QBR is a great statistic. Ben's got a top 10 QBR... and QBR recognizes his ability on 3rd downs. I'm sorry if the stat is too complicated for you. But it's an incredibly accurate representation of all QB actions. It accounts for balls thrown away, it accounts for the play of the offensive line, it accounts for penalties, it accounts for QBs that can scramble, it accounts for QBs who have option/run skills.
Generally, I find that people that simply dismiss statistics either don't understand them, or don't like that the stats don't fit their preconceived beliefs.
I'll wait for you to point out the statistical "flaw" you say exists in QBR, before deciding whether to take you seriously or not. I'm sure you can google/find something
Last edited by NeilPatrickBanana; 12-14-2012 at 03:17 PM.
everyone knows that the colt's threw the season to get luck because they thought payton was done and luck is cheaper
And that doesn't mean jack. You don't know what Luck will do with a world championship on the line. Ben has proven two out of three times what he can do.
Luck is in a system that passes waaaaaaaaay more then the System Ben was in most of his career. Luck is a good QB. Just how good we will see.
The Steeler way...is the only way.
yea, Ben really proved it in super bowl XL... lol
fans are such homers.
Ben is awesome
Luck is way more talented
Luck is in a system, and performing as good or better in it (QBR) as a rookie, then Ben did IN THE SAME SYSTEM as a veteran...
You can nitpick a singular stat or try to frame in around certain time periods... whatever
Here's the truth:
Luck-Rookie-Arians Offense = 67.4 QBR
Ben-5th season-Arians Offense = 46.8
Ben-6th season-Arians Offense = 67.3
Ben-8th season-Arians Offense = 64.1
Ben-9th season-Arians Offense = 63.6
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