WEEK 4 PICKS
CONGRATS TO THE 2010 DONíS PREDICTION LEAGUE CHAMPIONS
*** Mlmpetert from thewarpath.net ***
*** Sparty from detroitlionsforum.com ***
Like I said, week 3 is the most unpredictable of all every year with the most amounts of upsets every season. We had awesome matchups, we had cry baby call out the refs, we had others not owning up to their own mistakes and we saw what could had been the #1 highlight reel of 2011 get called back by a player not having his head on the game.
- Itís Funny how quickly and unpredictable the NFL is. The only three undefeated teams in the NFL are Buffalo Green Bay and Detroit. Atlanta an early favorite is learning the hard way that you donít trade your whole draft for 1 player, should had asked Ditka before pulling that trade. The dream looks over for the Eagles and his conspiracy theory QB. Isnít fun?
- I love when players come out of nowhere and complete take over 1 week, Torrey Smith the 2nd round pick out of Maryland had caught zero passes before week 3 and in just one game complete destroyed the Rams and made a huge contribution to his team. If Lee Evans doesnít come back from injury soon he might not get his spot back
- Iím really impressed how 4 young teams are playing against adversity. The Lions didnít look frustrated even after being behind 20-0; you always felt that they will find a way to comeback. Oakland and Buffalo werenít scared of the BIG teams they were playing and were back and forward the whole game and at the end when bad teamís fold they stud up took the lead and came away with the W. The other is the Browns they might look bad at times but they have won back 2 back and that final drive by McCoy to take the lead against the Dolphins was perfect and poised.
- I had the worst week of my career Straight up last week going 7-9, took way too many risk and none paid off. I still went 9-7 against the spread for the third week in a row, and the MNF game helped me win some money back so I only lost $20 this week. Over all for the season Iím at 58% and fell down a spot to 15th place in the league.
- There are two The Goat of the Week this week. The First you have to be sick if youíre Corey Graham of the bears.- I mean his mistake wouldnít had given The Bears the win it might have given them at least a chance for a comeback but, what it did do is cancelled one of the best special team trick plays probably ever!! Itís those one in a lifetime plays because you all know that all ST coaches will teach and tell their players to pay more attention during punts but haven a holding call on a decoy play! Itís just stupid I mean who was he trying to block?
The other is Dallas Cowboys Center, Phil Costas I donít care if the Redskins defenders were calling the snaps, youíre playing at home if something wrong is happening be a pro adjust 3 early snaps itís just unacceptable and in such a close game unreal the Cowboys were lucky Romo was the QB and he thinks fast on his feet I donít know how many QBís would had saved that.
On to the games
Detroit at Dallas 1 Ovr/Und 46
I expect Dallas to be healthier this week against Detroit itís just crazy to believe with what team they won last week. Still this will not only be the toughest front 7 they have had to face which I donít believe their banged up young oline can hold but, the real first good offense their defense had to face all year so far. This game will be interesting but with the injuries and how good Detroit is playing on both sides I donít see the Cowboys winning this one. If you want to play it safe in this game take the Over on this one.
San Francisco at Philadelphia -8.5 Ovr/Und 44.5
The Eagles are finding it very hard to mask their flaws and that LB corps and Oline is costing those games and making his QB yell uncle!! I said it before the season I wasnít high on the Eagles and I didnít expect Vick to last injured free the whole season I just didnít expected them to flunk so soon. San Francisco defense is playing good and even with Smithís 2.7 yard avrg per completion came out with a win in a tough venue like Cincinnati but playing back to back games on to road itís going to be difficult. Take the Eagles even with the injuries, but this might be a little close.
Minnesota at Kansas City 1.5 Ovr/Und 40
If the Vikings could find a way to tell the NFL to only play the first half they would be 3-0 itís just too weird how they have a complete meltdown when they come out of the lock room in the second half maybe Frazier should change his halftime speech. The Chief finally showed something last week trying to come back against the Chargers just to fell short when Matt Cassel pulled a well a Matt Cassel.
Washington at St. Louis 1.5 Ovr/Und 43.5
Rex Grossman looked like the Rex of old last week, making a key mistake with the game on the line, when your defense holds the other team to FGís youíre supposed to win. I expect Washington to play better this week. The Rams are hurt even this being a win it or ship it week for the Rams I canít see them beating a good Washington defense.
New Orleans at Jacksonville 7 Ovr/Und 45.5
The Saints came back last week and took the win against a tough Texans team. Blaine Gabbertís debut didnít go as smooth as plan. The Jaguars have a very good defense and it will be hard to cover the over against them, The Jaguars are 1-9 ATS in their last ten games, take the Saints on this one.
Tennessee at Cleveland 1.5 Ovr/Und 39
It starting to look like CJ is laughing all the way to the bank; these teams have two of the top defenses in the NFL, Cleveland has one of the worst run defenses in the league so this could be the week we see CJ explode especially after the Titans lost their #1 weapon in Britt. Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games while Tennessee is 6-4 ATS. I expect a close game thatís going to go all the way to the wire but in a case like this I take the team with the better defense and more experienced QB. Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games
Pittsburgh at Houston -4 Ovr/Und 45
Pittsburgh just doesnít look like the team of last year, they needed their defense to come up big last week and win a game that they were trying their best to lose. Houston was meant a flop, theyíre still young to play in that venue and take the win. Pittsburgh oline is hurt and slow and theyíre facing a young fast defense. Arian Foster will be back this week, but we donít know how effective theyíll be. The Steelers have been profitable as underdogs in the past going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games take the Texans to win but Pittsburgh to cover the spread.
Buffalo at Cincinnati 3 Ovr/Und 44
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Buffalo is coming from two back two back into the wire games and have come on top. Theyíre showing that they are a team to reckon with, the problem is that after two hard matches and playing on the road against a very good defense I believe it will be that awful trap game that happens every week. If the offense in Cincinnati can at least not make mistakes the Bengals should take this one.
Carolina at Chicago -6.5 Ovr/Und 43
If Mike Martz ever learns how to use a HB in his scheme he might have something. The Bears Oline is still awful and is getting Cutler killed. Itís funny the game Cam Newton doesnít even pass for 200 yards is the game they win. I believe the Bears didnít read the Buyers Beware label when they brought all those left in the curve Cowboys. I havenít seen anyone give up on routs and give the least amount on effort in a game like Roy Williams wow that was a annoying performance by him last week. Take the home team in a close match.
Atlanta at Seattle -4.5 Ovr/Und 39
Itís weird to believe teams are in must win move after only 3 weeks but if a team just canít afford another loss if they have any plans at the playoffs are the Falcons. Playing in Seattle is tough and itís very weird how that team is being run. Thereís supposed to be a master plan behind all that madness but it looks like Only Pete Carroll knows it. Take Atlanta in the must win mode.
New York Giants at Arizona 1.5 Ovr/Und 44.5
This is the game thatís giving me more headaches I really donít like how either team has played. Even at 2-1 the Giants havenít looked good besides their front 7, we have seen that apparently Arizona even with a new QB canít win on the road. Iíve gone back and forward with this game because itís hard for me to believe that the Giants can win 3 in a row playing like they have and the Cardinals losing 3 in a row. I think the heat itís going to be a factor on this one so take the home team.
Denver at Green Bay -12.5 Ovr/Und 46.5
I feel the line is too big on this one yeah Denver is on the road with a 1-2 record against the Super Bowl Champions and a 3-0 record but Denver has played three straight close games. Rodgers has looked really good but their defense hasnít been solid at all allowing an average of 24.6 points per game. Take The Packers to win at home but not to cover and the over on this one.
Miami at San Diego : -7 Ovr/Und 45
This could definitely be a trap game. San Diego hasnít looked good the past 3 weeks and Miami is in desperation move. The Dolphins havenít played awful they just have let the games get away from them Take the Charges at home but no to cover on this one and take the under.
New England at Oakland : 4.5 Ovr/Und 55
Itís never good to be a playing the Patriots after a loss, The Patriots defense is awful and we all knew that the buffalo game could had been a trap game just because of how the Patriots were playing. Oakland has looked really good under Jackson and their only loss came against the same team in a similar way that the Patriots lost to. McFadden has been the biggest surprise carrying on from last year and showing that when healthy heís worth the high pick it took the Raider to get. The bad news is that he got hurt last week, he will play but I remember the banged up McFadden and it isnít good. Take the Patriots and the under on this one, the patriots are good for 35 points per game but I donít know if Oakland would be able to contribute the other 21 points needed to cover with their best weapon not 100%.
New York Jets at Baltimore : -3.5 Ovr/Und 41.5
We all know thereís animosity between these two teams. Rex has three team he always wants to beat the Patriots, because well not only theyíre in the division but usually is the team to beat, any team coached by his Twin Brother Rob, just to prove who is the top dog between them and the Ravens because he truly believes that he deserved that Head Coaching job and wants to make them pay for passing up on him. This will be a hard fought match of clash between defenses, the ravens have been outstanding against the run so far this season so expect them to make the Jets one dimensional and take the win at home in a low scoring match.
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay : -10 Ovr/Und 41
Tampa Bay played a hard match last week against the Falcons the type of matches they liked and won last year. I knew it would take some time for Collins and the Colts to get in a rhythm after well just picking him up from the streets. Tampa Bay wins but they usually win ugly and the Colts are playing better take the Home team but not the points.
The Hot Picks
Record 11-7 63% 3-2 in Upset picks
New England (league)
Donís Prediction League Leaders
- BrrsColts 95-49 66% [coltfreaks.com]
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15.- TheDon 84-60 58%