common games. Both teams are 2-3 in common games.
TEN: JAC W/L, CIN L, DEN L, NYJ W
PIT: JAC L, CIN W/W, DEN L, NYJ L
So the tiebreaker then goes to SOV in which the Titans have a reasonable edge
I've looked a little more at the potential strength of victory tiebreaker between Pittsburgh and Tennessee, which would occur if both teams were 10-6, Pittsburgh won next week at St. Louis, and Cleveland out against Cincy and San Fran and won its division at 11-5.
There are 16 other games which would affect strength of victory, Tennessee holding a 67-63 advantage going in. Six affect Pittsburgh's strength of victory alone, nine affect Tennessee's alone, and one (Seattle at Atlanta in week 17) affects both.
The Titans would need four of those 16 results to guarantee a strength of victory advantage. If they only got three, it looks like they have an overwhelming advantage in strength of schedule, the next tiebreaker.
While there's probably about a 2% chance of this scenario occurring, I think it would be very unlikely for Pittsburgh to hold an edge.
As for the Titans chances, yes, they will have difficulty with the Colts but keep 2 things in mind. 1) Historically, after the Colts have had their seed locked, they have kept their starters in for only a drive or two before playing backups. This should make the game easier on the Titans. 2) The Titans were a dropped Brandon Jones catch away from being in FG range for the game-winning FG against the Manning-led Colts in week 2. I'm not saying either of these will give the Titans the win, but the Colts game is definitely winnable.