Don's Crystal Ball 2010 Week 3 Picks
WEEK 3 PICKS
With 2 weeks down the season is officially on its way. We already have seen surprises, some huge disappointments, bad teams overachieving and good teams just completely lost. If Week 2 was important because only 13% of teams starting 0-2 have made the playoffs since 1990 imagine being 0-3. The best case of how a bad start can hurt you its last year’s Tennessee Titans. After falling 0-6 and despite having a great run the early loses where just too much for them to overcome
- Don’t get fooled by early records some teams might start hot but can’t deliver late in the season like Denver last year others, like San Diego usually start slow and have great runs at the end. So stick to your predictions, go game by game because there’s nothing worse than getting blindsided in midseason.
- This is starting to be another year of upsets with an avrg of 6 underdogs winning per week. So look at the whole picture, who’s playing at home, how long is the travel and if it’s too close to call take the points last week 7 underdogs won their games and another 3 favorites won the games but didn’t cover the lines.
- I’m still completely baffled at Dallas (0-2) and Pittsburgh’s (2-0). It just shows you how unexpected the NFL can be, 1 team keeps winning even with the 4th QB and the other one can’t win with 11 Probowlers in their roster.
- I like the move Philadelphia made with M.Vick not only because he has the hot hand and has been the guy before but because he style fits better behind that shaky line.
- Clay Matthews looks like a complete freak out there I haven’t seen that closeout speed since L.T he just looks like he plays with an extra gear…. Shouldn’t we need to test him for “over training” like his fellow USC ex teammate?
- I’m doing really good against the spread 21-11 66%, but not so great on my hot picks (picks against the spread) of my 11 bad picks 7 have been of Hot Picks. Need to change that.
- The Goat of the Week Washington Redskins after taking a 17 point lead with less than a minute to end the 3rd quarter in what seemed to be a huge upset over Houston, they found a way to blow the lead and lose in Over Time. Oh and does it take a mastermind to know that with the game on the line the ball is going to go to A. Johnson… Really?
On to the games
San Francisco at Kansas City 3 Ovr/Und 36
I was surprised when I saw the line for this game, I expected to call this game an upset just to find out Kansas City is the underdog in this match. You know you get no respect when you’re undefeated playing against a winless team at home and still you’re called the underdog. The reality is, The area that gets no respect of the Chiefs is their offense and will have huge problems against the San Francisco defense.
Tennessee at New York Giants -3 Ovr/Und 42.5
I had a little trouble with this match, New York’s front seven which is supposed to be filled with all stars made Joseph Addai look like Chris Johnson last week. So now that they’re actually facing the real CJ I don’t know what to expect. I’m going to go out of a limb and scratch last week’s loss because baby bro was playing against big bro and expect the Giants to play better at home.
Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay -3 Ovr/Und 33
I’m impressed on what the Steelers have done without their starting to QB, heck right now with how good the defense is playing they could even win with their 5th QB H.Ward… Even thou Tampa Bay has shown a lot of maturity for a really young team this defense will be too much for them to handle.
Detroit at Minnesota -11 Ovr/Und 42
Minnesota is not playing well at all and to give them double digits with both Berrian and Harvin banged up it’s just ridiculous. The Lions front seven lead the league in sacks and pressure, Favre still looks bad out there. So take the home team to find a way to win the game but take the points.
Atlanta at New Orleans -4 Ovr/Und 49.5
UPSET OF THE WEEK
These two teams usually play close in fact in the past 4 meetings the difference in score between both teams is 1. The Saints offense hasn’t clicked yet and playing in a short week after a hard game Monday night without one of their playmakers tells me to pick their division rivals on this one.
Cleveland at Baltimore -10.5 Ovr/Und 37
Baltimore’s running game will shine this week, the ravens usually beat Cleveland by double digits so don’t be afraid by the line. Take the home team and the over on this one.
Buffalo at New England -14 Ovr/Und 42.5
I don’t like taking the lines of games when they’re so big because one mistake and you’re on the outside looking in. But I picked GB last week with a 13 point line against the Bills so I shouldn’t be worried this week. The Bills are just a disaster all around and the Patriots come back from an awful loss to the Jets so I expect them to recover this week.
Cincinnati at Carolina 3 Ovr/Und 38
I know that the Panthers are running out of options but I don’t know if this is the best week to start the rookie QB. Take Cincinnati and the points this team is playing more as a team each week. I expect them to show their offensive power this week.
Dallas at Houston -3 Ovr/Und 47
UPSET OF THE WEEK
I changed my mind a lot on this game and almost went with the split pick. At the end I decided to go with Dallas based on the tendencies of the past year and start of this one of improbable upsets. Houston is coming from a huge come from behind victory that might made this team over confident. Dallas is playing their season this week; they have a lot more in the line. So I go with the desperate team on this one.
Washington at St. Louis 3.5 Ovr/Und 38.5
The Redskins are playing better but they find ways to complicate games each week so that worries me. The Rams really don’t have any weapons and have huge holes but they’re playing at home and you have to take that into account. The Half a point might make the difference in this one but still take the redskins ad the Under.
Philadelphia at Jacksonville 3 Ovr/Und 44.5
M.Vick it’s playing at a high level and his style of play helps the shaky Philadelphia’s Oline I don’t know if he will regress to old habits but I do expect him to make some mistakes. Take the Eagles and the under on this one.
San Diego at Seattle 5.5 Ovr/Und 48
San Diego completely over matches Seattle but the long travel weather and the injury to Matthews could play a factor on this one being close. If the Seahawks can find a way to neutralize A. Gates like The Chief did they have a shot in this one.
Oakland at Arizona : -4 Ovr/Und 39
These are the type of games nobody wants to call both teams have good running game and shaky QB’s. I expect a close that could go either way but I give the advantage to the home team on this one.
Indianapolis at Denver : 5.5 Ovr/Und 48
Both teams played really well last week and I expect the same this week, high scoring game but the Colts win by a 10.
New York Jets at Miami : -2.5 Ovr/Und 35
Miami is the only team that has found holes in Rex’s defense so I expect him to take this game personally. I like how Sanchez controlled the game last week the bad thing is that Sanchez usually follows a good game with a bad one. Miami’s offense hasn’t clicked yet so even with the low line take the under on this one.
Green Bay at Chicago : 3 Ovr/Und 46
Not even the Bears players expected to start the season 2-0, so don’t get fooled by the record. Chicago Oline is really bad and they have survived by playing screens and quick throws to their TE. With 2 weeks of tape I expect the Packers defense to be in Cutlers face all day just like Dallas was in the first quarter… The Difference is that Green Bay’s defense can provoke turnovers and will be the key to the game.
The Hot Picks
Record 5-7 42%
Don’s Prediction League Leaders
- MlmPetert 65 -31 68% [thewarpath.net]
- Sk8termom 62-34 65% [steeleraddicts.com]
- JAB 60 -36 63% [forums.azcardinals.com]
- TheDon 60-36 63%