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NeilPatrickBanana
11-27-2013, 11:14 AM
(My apology in advance for jinxing our chances)

From ESPN:


No. 6 - Pittsburgh Steelers

Current record: 5-6 | Weighted DVOA: 3.4 percent
Projected wins: 7.9
Total playoff odds: 38.0 percent | Weekly change: +18.3 percent

Thanks to a three-game winning streak, the Steelers have seen their playoff odds increase six-fold over the past two weeks (from 6.8 percent after Week 10), which is good enough to vault them into the final AFC playoff spot in our simulations. At 28.4 percent, however, it's nowhere near a stranglehold. What gives Pittsburgh a slight edge right now is that it's the only team with a positive weighted DVOA among the six vying for the No. 6 seed. What makes the Steelers' edge tenuous is that, while our simulations view them as a projected favorite in three of their final five games, they view San Diego as a favorite in four games.

In the hunt

Tennessee Titans | 5-6 | Total playoff odds: 16.7 percent
Baltimore Ravens | 5-6 | Total playoff odds: 15.9 percent
San Diego Chargers | 5-6 | Total playoff odds: 13.3 percent
New York Jets | 5-6 | Total playoff odds: 12.4 percent
Miami Dolphins | 5-6 | Total playoff odds: 9.4 percent

Last week, we wrote that the Jets were still very much alive -- unless they lost to Baltimore. Naturally, they went out and lost to Baltimore. Except for a Week 15 game at Carolina, New York's remaining schedule is quite friendly (minus-14.4 percent weighted DVOA average opponent). Unfortunately, losing to the Ravens means that schedule is unlikely to matter: The Jets now lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Tennessee.


If the Steelers win Thursday night at Baltimore... I'm on the bandwagon. (of course this means an epic let down)

In the Season Predictions thread before the season started, I stated that the Steelers would need to go 3-1, in their final 4 games to make the playoffs. I think that prediction will hold true.

3 of their final 4 are at home (Cin, Mia, Cle)...
1 on the road (GB)...Assuming Rodgers is back in Week 16 and that's a loss, I think the Steelers can win those final 3 home games...

With a win in Baltimore, that would make us 9-7, and a good bet for the playoffs...

I also think it gives us one game to play with, as 8-8 is the likely record of the final playoff spot... although that puts it in tie breaker territory and it's impossible to predict what that Landscape will look like.


Who to Watch:

San Diego is the biggest competition IMO. They have 4 of 5 at home to finish the year.
Cin, NYG, @DEN, OAK, KC

And It's likely that KC has nothing to play for in Week 17

Tennessee is also a trouble spot, since they own a H2H tie breaker with us. but they should lose their next 2.
@IND, @DEN, ARI, Jax, Hou
8-8 is the best they can do IMO... and likely worse...

Baltimore... essentially... Thursday night is a must win for Baltimore... Pit already beat them once
PIT, MIN, @DET, NE, @CIN,

NYJ... MIA... one of them has to sweep to stay in it. MIA has the tougher schedule with 3 of 5 on the road and going to Pit.

MIA: @NYJ, @PIT, NE, @BUF, NYJ
The Jets have an easier schedule. but aside from a CLE gimme... they probably won't be favorites.
NYJ: MIA, OAK, @CAR, CLE, @MIA

The AFC Wild Card will swing wildly over the last 5 games

K Train
11-27-2013, 11:50 AM
didnt you hear? starting 0-2 only gives you a 12% chance

Steelers need to sweep the ravens, if they dont they can pack it in. Offense is playing well, defense is playing better, and most importantly ben doesnt looks like he doesnt care. Steelers are getting hot, the jets are in a downward spiral

coldrolled
11-27-2013, 12:49 PM
The Steelers need to win out, stay healthy, then they will be a force in the playoffs. if they squeak in the playoffs they will get beat game one and end up picking around 24.

K Train
11-27-2013, 01:17 PM
The Steelers need to win out, stay healthy, then they will be a force in the playoffs. if they squeak in the playoffs they will get beat game one and end up picking around 24.
regardless of how good they are, i think they could still end up being a scary team to face in the playoffs because of the experience and the winning streak (if they actually go on one)

The matchups are favorable, even the packers game...if rodgers is back hes been very bad coming off of injury

NeilPatrickBanana
11-27-2013, 01:35 PM
The Steelers need to win out, stay healthy, then they will be a force in the playoffs. if they squeak in the playoffs they will get beat game one and end up picking around 24.

We'd have to win at cinci or Indy... I like those matchups

Rocky#20
11-27-2013, 01:37 PM
The Steeler still have a shot at the division if they beat the Ravens. The Bengals schedule gets tougher as they have left at the Chargers, the Colts, at the Steelers, the Vikings, and the Ravens. They could lose 3 or 4 of those games. So who do we root against this week the Chargers who we are battling a WC spot for or the Bengals?

steelchamp204
11-27-2013, 01:58 PM
Can we talk about this after the Ravens game? This game scares the hell out of me for some reason. I hope the offense gets on the board early in this one. The defense will need to create 2 turnovers also I believe.

WindyCityShaker
11-27-2013, 02:13 PM
The Steeler still have a shot at the division if they beat the Ravens. The Bengals schedule gets tougher as they have left at the Chargers, the Colts, at the Steelers, the Vikings, and the Ravens. They could lose 3 or 4 of those games. So who do we root against this week the Chargers who we are battling a WC spot for or the Bengals?

We root for what hopefully is the Steelers goal, to win every game, one game at a time and let the proverbial chips fall where they may. No other results matter.

coldrolled
11-27-2013, 02:17 PM
Can we talk about this after the Ravens game? This game scares the hell out of me for some reason. I hope the offense gets on the board early in this one. The defense will need to create 2 turnovers also I believe.

IMO Bell needs to really show up big Thursday... and if he is not making it happen early, dwyer needs to get more time. we need to run big...

WindyCityShaker
11-27-2013, 02:19 PM
Can we talk about this after the Ravens game? This game scares the hell out of me for some reason. I hope the offense gets on the board early in this one. The defense will need to create 2 turnovers also I believe.

We may want to create some turnovers, but I'm much more keen about not giving any up ourselves. It would be encouraging to see the D keep their foot on the pedal, just not at the expense of taking unnecessary risks, not this game.

steelchamp204
11-27-2013, 02:30 PM
IMO Bell needs to really show up big Thursday... and if he is not making it happen early, dwyer needs to get more time. we need to run big...

IMO I'm still having questions about Bells running ability. I love how he shows a ton of patience waiting for a hole to open, but he also needs to know when to hit the hole quickly. However, I am very pleased about his receiving skills out of the backfield.

SuperSteelers
11-28-2013, 02:04 AM
So, if San Diego is a must watch game who the hell do you root for when they play Cincinnati?

Big T
11-28-2013, 02:19 AM
So, if San Diego is a must watch game who the hell do you root for when they play Cincinnati?

It's an odd situation. I guess it depends on what happens in Baltimore. We're only 2 games back from Cincy and we still play them at home. The division is absolutely still in play.

Nolrog
11-28-2013, 08:01 AM
IMO I'm still having questions about Bells running ability. I love how he shows a ton of patience waiting for a hole to open, but he also needs to know when to hit the hole quickly. However, I am very pleased about his receiving skills out of the backfield.

What I liked about Bell is that he seems to have good vision on the field and can see where the hole is rather than just running where the play was designed. I think he will be fine, but the OL, still has improvement to do in opening them for him.

Dean Denton
11-28-2013, 09:24 AM
Looking at the remaining schedule for the Bengals I could see them losing 4 of their last 5 games and the Steelers winning this division. May sound crazy, but I think this is gonna happen. Steelers are in control of their destiny right now because the Bengals are about to fall apart. Think I'm nuts? Go look at the schedules... Just sayin

steelchamp204
11-28-2013, 09:31 AM
Looking at the remaining schedule for the Bengals I could see them losing 4 of their last 5 games and the Steelers winning this division. May sound crazy, but I think this is gonna happen. Steelers are in control of their destiny right now because the Bengals are about to fall apart. Think I'm nuts? Go look at the schedules... Just sayin

I believe the Steelers win out, but they HAVE TO WIN TONIGHT. This is the only game I am worried about down the stretch, I'm not even worried about the Packers with Rogers/Lacy.

questforSB7
11-28-2013, 06:10 PM
I will tell you ONE team that does not DESERVE to get into the playoffs IS San Diego. I mean coming off a HUGE Victory IN Kansas City. And HOSTING the Division leading Bengals...and your fans can't even sell out the game ????



League announces it as the first NFL Blackout game this season.



http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/28/bengals-chargers-becomes-first-blackout-of-the-2013-season/