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View Full Version : Rebuttal of Jets running game week 15!



NHStlrfan
01-20-2011, 12:26 PM
I've seen a number of posts and threads about the Jets and the fact that they rushed for over 100 yards against the #1 Rush D in the league in week 15. Once again stats have a way of getting in the way of theory. This link is the NFL's offical site with stats from that game.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010121911/2010/REG15/jets@steelers/analyze/box-score

Look closely all you who believe the Jets rushing attack was so effective that day. The real factor was not the Jets rush, it was two plays. A kick return for a TD and a safety on a poorly executed run. I know these plays happened but the reality is removing these two plays and the final score is Pttisburgh 17, NY 13.

Key numbers.
Total rushing yards: NY Jets 106, Pttisburgh 146. Of the 106, the key rushers for NY Jets were held to 91 yards net. Sanchez had 15. Mendenhal had 99 and Ben 25!
Total passing yards: NY Jets 170, Pittsburgh 232.
Third Down Efficiency: NY Jets 6/13 46%, Pittsburgh 11/17 64%
Red Zone Efficiency: NY Jets 1/3 33%, Pittsburgh 2/3 66%
Goal to Go Efficiency: NY Jets 0/0 0%, Pittsburgh 1/2 50% (that's right they never had goal to go.)

Look closely and you see the real story. Barring major injury, kick return or turnover the Jets will do well to get to 17 and the Steelers will get a minimum of 27. This game will be close for a while then the Steelers will pull away in the end. These numbers are similar in last weeks games as well for both teams and any serious fan would never equate the Pats D with the Ravens D.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011011600/2010/POST19/jets@patriots/analyze/box-score

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011011500/2010/POST19/ravens@steelers/analyze/box-score

steelersbabex25
01-20-2011, 12:36 PM
:plus1: :iagree:

NHStlrfan
01-20-2011, 12:57 PM
Facts is facts as they say. I really don't see any deviation in the trends. These numbers are a season long thing not an anomole. If the game is in Sanchez' hands to win, and all indications are it will be from a Jets perspecitive, then I really like the Steelers chances. Again barring an odd play like a kick or pick return the Jets will find it difficult movng the ball and scoring. They are similar on Offense to the Ravens and again, other than the two turnovers the Ravens score 10.

tburg68
01-20-2011, 01:58 PM
Steelers 28 Jets 10

Jets score a touchdown late in the 4th Qtr. I just don't see this game being close, unless turnovers or special teams get the Steelers.

Goodfrom55
01-20-2011, 02:08 PM
Thinking it wil be one of those games where the score will not indicate the level of competition. I think the Steelers win 34-20 on a late TD. Jets are a good football team, but they are asking Sanchez to do more than Big Ben. Barring some kind of implosion, I don't see that happening. They key is to keep the Jets in 3rd and long, and as much as Sanchez likes to throw underneath, it is paramount for the D-Line to get their arms up and deflect passes here and there. And like I said last week, the 1st guy to the ball carrier / receiver can't miss; he has to make the tackle.

StlersGuy
01-20-2011, 02:20 PM
I look for the Steelers to come out and take control of this game early. The crowd will be a big factor and I look for our D to play one heck of a game..


*Sent from my HTC EVO using Tapatalk Pro.

roosterray
01-20-2011, 02:23 PM
I look for the Steelers to come out and take control of this game early. The crowd will be a big factor and I look for our D to play one heck of a game..


*Sent from my HTC EVO using Tapatalk Pro.

I agree on this one. We woke up after the 1st half last week and that moment will carry us. If we can play lights out, the the Jets will have to blitz on Defense and we'll burn them in Man to man. They can't afford to play from behind. As long as the refs take a back seat to football. :) Its gonna be a great game to watch. :tt02:

wa2k99
01-20-2011, 02:44 PM
Thanks for the laugh. It will be hard for the Steelers to score LESS than 27 points? Revis, Cro, Scott, Harris, Ellis, Sione, Pace, Taylor...Wishful thinking.

But as a Jets fan, I embrace the disrespect. I expect a heck of a game, and regardless, at the end, the Jets will earn the respect of Pittsburgh.

SteelCityKid5
01-20-2011, 04:26 PM
Thanks for the laugh. It will be hard for the Steelers to score LESS than 27 points? Revis, Cro, Scott, Harris, Ellis, Sione, Pace, Taylor...Wishful thinking.

But as a Jets fan, I embrace the disrespect. I expect a heck of a game, and regardless, at the end, the Jets will earn the respect of Pittsburgh.

------

Point well taken. I think its going to be a tough game as well. I don't think well score 27 or 28 points but 21 or 24 is ideal.

tburg68
01-20-2011, 07:17 PM
Thanks for the laugh. It will be hard for the Steelers to score LESS than 27 points? Revis, Cro, Scott, Harris, Ellis, Sione, Pace, Taylor...Wishful thinking.

But as a Jets fan, I embrace the disrespect. I expect a heck of a game, and regardless, at the end, the Jets will earn the respect of Pittsburgh.

Sanchez is overrated! 28-10 Steelers

NHStlrfan
01-21-2011, 10:30 AM
Thanks for the laugh. It will be hard for the Steelers to score LESS than 27 points? Revis, Cro, Scott, Harris, Ellis, Sione, Pace, Taylor...Wishful thinking.

But as a Jets fan, I embrace the disrespect. I expect a heck of a game, and regardless, at the end, the Jets will earn the respect of Pittsburgh.

Mets, Jets, Rangers. Hmmm... I see you have a lot of fun hoping year after year. :yellowthumb:

Seriously though, the numbers don't bear out your theory. These numbers are not just one isolated game but rather a season trend. At least three odd plays have to happen in order for the Jets to prevail as was the case in week 15. These are not Picks or fumbles Iím referring to but rather a kick return, safety, fake punt, gadget play.

Even with those three plays the Jets nearly lost the week 15 game and that vaunted D from NY didn't actually stop the Steelers. Field position played a major factor. The plays Iím referring to are the kick return, the safety and the bootleg on 4th and goal. All of these are plays not regularly seen and classify as odd plays.

The point here is so many are touting the fact that the Jets were able to run in week 15. While they did have a modicum of success they didn't ďdominate the lineĒ. Mendenhall rushed for more than did the top three Jets backs combined. The argument is more one that the Steelers didnít emphasize their run enough.

In this game unlike last week, Sanchez has to win the game. The likelihood of that happening just doesn't favor the Jets. Too many factors present issues for him. Heath Miller for one is a major factor. Spaeth saw a number of throws of which at least half the drops would more likely have been completions to Miller. Need we remind you of the next to last play of that game.

Run the numbers. Trends favor Pittsburgh at 27 points and NY Jets at 13. Add in three major odd plays and you get a Jets win. Fall short of that number of odd plays and you donít. Iím just running the numbers for a reality check for all out there. Thereís a reason the line from Vegas favors the Steelers. They like the numbers as well.

jetsknicks1
01-21-2011, 11:50 AM
Mets, Jets, Rangers. Hmmm... I see you have a lot of fun hoping year after year. :yellowthumb:

Seriously though, the numbers don't bear out your theory. These numbers are not just one isolated game but rather a season trend. At least three odd plays have to happen in order for the Jets to prevail as was the case in week 15. These are not Picks or fumbles Iím referring to but rather a kick return, safety, fake punt, gadget play.

Even with those three plays the Jets nearly lost the week 15 game and that vaunted D from NY didn't actually stop the Steelers. Field position played a major factor. The plays Iím referring to are the kick return, the safety and the bootleg on 4th and goal. All of these are plays not regularly seen and classify as odd plays.

The point here is so many are touting the fact that the Jets were able to run in week 15. While they did have a modicum of success they didn't ďdominate the lineĒ. Mendenhall rushed for more than did the top three Jets backs combined. The argument is more one that the Steelers didnít emphasize their run enough.

In this game unlike last week, Sanchez has to win the game. The likelihood of that happening just doesn't favor the Jets. Too many factors present issues for him. Heath Miller for one is a major factor. Spaeth saw a number of throws of which at least half the drops would more likely have been completions to Miller. Need we remind you of the next to last play of that game.

Run the numbers. Trends favor Pittsburgh at 27 points and NY Jets at 13. Add in three major odd plays and you get a Jets win. Fall short of that number of odd plays and you donít. Iím just running the numbers for a reality check for all out there. Thereís a reason the line from Vegas favors the Steelers. They like the numbers as well.

Ther's no doubt that the Steelers have a great run defense and I'm sure that they're practicing their asses off to stop our running attack, which they might do.

I do take exception to your view of kick returns, field position or a saftey as an odd or gadget play. Our ST unit is one of the best in the NFL, the fact that your ST couldn't stop them does not make it an odd play.

The safety was just very good D. Your OL was unable to stop our DL from pushing them back and were unable to keep JT from blowing up your RB.

NHStlrfan
01-21-2011, 12:01 PM
Ther's no doubt that the Steelers have a great run defense and I'm sure that they're practicing their asses off to stop our running attack, which they might do.

I do take exception to your view of kick returns, field position or a saftey as an odd or gadget play. Our ST unit is one of the best in the NFL, the fact that your ST couldn't stop them does not make it an odd play.

The safety was just very good D. Your OL was unable to stop our DL from pushing them back and were unable to keep JT from blowing up your RB.

:nono: The Steelers ST gave up one kick return TD for the season. That's an odd play. Yes the Jets ST are better. Stat for stat is the postition of this post. Look at the stats. They simply don't bear out your feeling on this one. Even in the week 15 game the Steelers outgained the Jets as was the case last week in the Jets/Pats game.

The safety was a single exceptional play by a guess from a DE. Taylor saw the opening, read the play and executed. The replacement OT missed the block. That play was the direct result of a ST win not a dominant D. Again look at the stats.

The trends bear out that its not been dominant D by the Jets nor exceptional O by the Jets. Luck has been with the Jets, not consistent exceptional play. Again that's my point. Yes teams do "make their own luck" at times. That goes to the bad luck as well. The facts bear out that the Steelers edge in post season experience, maturity and overall consistent play will win the day.

DanRooney
01-21-2011, 12:57 PM
I hope we don't run the ball more than 40 percent of the time. If we do, we're playing right into the Jets hands of milking time off the clock and keeping it close. We need to get a favorable lead (2-3 TDs) and hopefully Mendy can get rolling in the 4th quarter.

LarryNJ
01-21-2011, 01:13 PM
We need to get a favorable lead (2-3 TDs)

Wishful thinking but that would be very nice.

steelersbabex25
01-21-2011, 01:18 PM
I do take exception to your view of kick returns, field position or a saftey as an odd or gadget play. Our ST unit is one of the best in the NFL, the fact that your ST couldn't stop them does not make it an odd play.

It does. That touchdown wasn't your offense methodically moving the football down the field on our defense. It was our blown kick coverage. If you're counting on that to win the game for you again, I don't think it'll happen.

LarryNJ
01-21-2011, 01:22 PM
But as a Jets fan, I embrace the disrespect. I expect a heck of a game, and regardless, at the end, the Jets will earn the respect of Pittsburgh.

Not sure what that means. The time is long gone for the Jets to play the no respect card. There's no way the Steelers don't respect the Jets already. You can bet your paycheck that every last player and coach is preparing for them with the utmost respect.

NHStlrfan
01-21-2011, 01:30 PM
The time is long gone for the Jets to play the no respect card. There's no way the Steelers don't respect the Jets already. You can bet your paycheck that every last player and coach is preparing for them with the utmost respect.

All the press with the number of pundants picking the Jets will only enforce the issue. A team does not make it to the AFCCG two years in a row without garnering some amount of respect. This is the AFCCG after all.

Any idea about the Steelers taking it for granted evaporated in 2001 vs. the Pats. If anything the press is getting them even more focused on the disrespect for the Steelers at home! The lack of chatter from NY is a reflection of the respect for the experience in Pittsburgh and the fact that one doesn't make it to the AFCCG 2 out of 3 years without getting respect either.

DIESELMAN
01-21-2011, 01:38 PM
The safety was just very good D. Your OL was unable to stop our DL from pushing them back and were unable to keep JT from blowing up your RB.

That play should have never been called, a draw play out of our own end zone? We were pissed when Arians called that play, even a Pee Wee coach wouldn't call that play. So there is a factor on your side, we have Bruce Arians as our OC. If it wasn't for Ben calling his own play on that 3rd and 19 against Balt, you guys would be playing the Ravens on Sunday.

NHStlrfan
01-21-2011, 01:46 PM
That play should have never been called, a draw play out of our own end zone? We were pissed when Arians called that play, even a Pee Wee coach wouldn't call that play. So there is a factor on your side, we have Bruce Arians as our OC. If it wasn't for Ben calling his own play on that 3rd and 19 against Balt, you guys would be playing the Ravens on Sunday.

:nono: C'Mon Man! Stop disrespecting all those Pee Wee coaches out there! BA's main problem is he out-thinks himself at least 6 times a game. Even with that the Steelers are still the odds on favorite. Is BA from Jersey? :lol:

jetsknicks1
01-21-2011, 02:28 PM
:nono: The Steelers ST gave up one kick return TD for the season. That's an odd play. Yes the Jets ST are better. Stat for stat is the postition of this post. Look at the stats. They simply don't bear out your feeling on this one. Even in the week 15 game the Steelers outgained the Jets as was the case last week in the Jets/Pats game.

The safety was a single exceptional play by a guess from a DE. Taylor saw the opening, read the play and executed. The replacement OT missed the block. That play was the direct result of a ST win not a dominant D. Again look at the stats.

The trends bear out that its not been dominant D by the Jets nor exceptional O by the Jets. Luck has been with the Jets, not consistent exceptional play. Again that's my point. Yes teams do "make their own luck" at times. That goes to the bad luck as well. The facts bear out that the Steelers edge in post season experience, maturity and overall consistent play will win the day.

we just see things from opposite side of the same fence. You say the ST plays were odd. For us, it's not odd, our ST have provided very good field position week in week out, all season long.

You claim that the Jet's D is not exceptional, yet they finished the season ranked #3, right below you guys at #2. The #2 D is exeptional but the #3 D isn't?

NHStlrfan
01-21-2011, 02:38 PM
we just see things from opposite side of the same fence. You say the ST plays were odd. For us, it's not odd, our ST have provided very good field position week in week out, all season long.

You claim that the Jet's D is not exceptional, yet they finished the season ranked #3, right below you guys at #2. The #2 D is exeptional but the #3 D isn't?

I didn't say the Jets D wasn't exceptional. What I am saying is of late save last week's game they haven't played exceptionally.

Beating the Colts was a game of note but nothing like beating them 3-4 years ago. Thats a team with injury troubles greater than most. Austin Collie's there and you weren't playing last week most likley. Dumb play last week on a fake punt and well, the Steelers are likley in Foxboro this week. Again the point here is the trends from the season don't bear out the Jets prevailing this weekend.

It may well be close in the end however when looking at matchups, stats and trends so to say the Jets running game will be effective isn't borne out. And again that dumb play on the fake punt last week is yet another example of odd plays. It is what it is. ;)

LarryNJ
01-21-2011, 03:37 PM
For us, it's not odd, our ST have provided very good field position week in week out, all season long.

I certainly haven't watched the games like you guys. But from watching the playoffs it seems to me that your punter was having trouble putting kicks inside the 20. I could be wrong but it appeared to me that most went into the end zone.

LatrobePA
01-21-2011, 03:43 PM
Reverse pivot to 21 is hard to defend, and Sanchez can pull it off nicely...

NHStlrfan
01-21-2011, 03:50 PM
Reverse pivot to 21 is hard to defend, and Sanchez can pull it off nicely...

Are you referring to the bootleg or simply handing the ball off? Yes he's good at handing the ball off. The Steeler D line however is playing better week by week as Ziggy Hood brings his game up to speed. He's not Arron Smith but then not many are. He did play great last week and again that's my point. The trends are weighted in Pittsburgh's favor.:tt02:

LatrobePA
01-21-2011, 03:58 PM
Are you referring to the bootleg or simply handing the ball off? Yes he's good at handing the ball off. The Steeler D line however is playing better week by week as Ziggy Hood brings his game up to speed. He's not Arron Smith but then not many are. He did play great last week and again that's my point. The trends are weighted in Pittsburgh's favor.:tt02:

It's a quick 360* pivot hand off, it's usually on a quick count...

NHStlrfan
01-21-2011, 04:05 PM
It's a quick 360* pivot hand off, it's usually on a quick count...

I see. That is a Sanchez strength. ;)

Still not going to amount to a major factor in this game. Remember Polamalu has a big impact in the running game too not just passing. When he's in it frees up someone up front to stop the run or just his impact of stopping it himself.

Never underestimate the power of the hair!

Goodfrom55
01-21-2011, 04:12 PM
That play should have never been called, a draw play out of our own end zone? We were pissed when Arians called that play, even a Pee Wee coach wouldn't call that play. So there is a factor on your side, we have Bruce Arians as our OC. If it wasn't for Ben calling his own play on that 3rd and 19 against Balt, you guys would be playing the Ravens on Sunday.

Risky play for sure, especially with less than 4 minutes in the game. HOWEVER looking at that play 100 times, if Scott doesn't get beat inside by Taylor, the running lane was wide open for at least 10-15 yards. Of course, bigger play than that was the whiff on Sanchez by Mundy on 3rd and 15 which led the the go ahead FG.

Again, anytime you consider a defensive score or a special teams score as the norm, no matter how well executed, you're grasping at straws. Outside of 2 FG's, the Jets scored (1) TD on Sanchez's bootleg thanks in large part to James Harrison's brain fart.

Those rare scores are parts of the game the Steelers need to make sure do not come into play this week.

NHStlrfan
01-21-2011, 04:21 PM
Risky play for sure, especially with less than 4 minutes in the game. HOWEVER looking at that play 100 times, if Scott doesn't get beat inside by Taylor, the running lane was wide open for at least 10-15 yards. Of course, bigger play than that was the whiff on Sanchez by Mundy on 3rd and 15 which led the the go ahead FG.

Again, anytime you consider a defensive score or a special teams score as the norm, no matter how well executed, you're grasping at straws. Outside of 2 FG's, the Jets scored (1) TD on Sanchez's bootleg thanks in large part to James Harrison's brain fart.

Those rare scores are parts of the game the Steelers need to make sure do not come into play this week.

With Troy there Harrison stays at home and that play fails. I would wager with Troy there its a 50/50 they even call it let alone have it work. Better bet is they go for 3.

Clevelandsux
01-21-2011, 04:41 PM
I think it might comedown to ben vs sanchez. if that's the case I like our chances.

Goodfrom55
01-21-2011, 04:45 PM
I think it might comedown to ben vs sanchez. if that's the case I like our chances.

That about wraps it up in a sentence.

JFE
01-21-2011, 05:16 PM
I certainly haven't watched the games like you guys. But from watching the playoffs it seems to me that your punter was having trouble putting kicks inside the 20. I could be wrong but it appeared to me that most went into the end zone.

Thats a good point. Weatherford had an exceptional season and is the reason we had a safty against you guys. For some reason in the playoffs his kicks have mainly gone to the end zone. If you are into odds, then he is due for a good game.

LarryNJ
01-21-2011, 05:21 PM
Thats a good point. Weatherford had an exceptional season and is the reason we had a safty against you guys. For some reason in the playoffs his kicks have mainly gone to the end zone. If you are into odds, then he is due for a good game.

I'm not into odds....I'll take it on the 20 thanks! :lol:

NHStlrfan
01-24-2011, 11:29 AM
NEVER pay attention to the emmotional hype Steelers fans! Look at the trends, watch the numbers and look for title number 7 comming back to the Burgh! The Pack has some momentum but the numbers won't lie. That awesome offensive machine only put up 14 points on the Da Bearss and they had the ball for most of the game! The best QB this weekend was Sanchez and the Steelers beat him!!!!