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Steelers Vs. Bengals: Probabilities and Fantasy Analysis

After the Steelers put up a dud at home against the Titans, it’s no shocker that most are predicting the Bengals will win at home tonight. At Sports Tradex, market participants in their free prediction market are predicting the Bengals have a 75% chance to win.


While the Steelers looked bad in their opening loss, it seems people may have gone over-reacted. First, the Titans looked very good in Week 2, taking the Texans to overtime. Most did not expect the game to be close, and the Titans were 9 point underdogs according to Vegas.

While the Bengals looked good in Week 1, they still lost. A.J. Green had an amazing game, but ultimately the Bears were still able to win. It’s not as if the Bengals are suddenly the same caliber team as the Broncos or the Packers. I believe the Steelers could bounce back, and I would recommend selling shares of the Bengals on the market.


Fantasy-wise, Steelers players aren’t expected to do much this week. This is largely due to the poor offensive performance of last week. Roethlisberger was one of the cheaper quarterback options on most daily fantasy sites, costing players about 40% less to draft than Drew Brees on Draftkings. This implies people aren’t expecting too much in the way of a passing game, both in terms of yards and touchdowns.


Likewise, Steelers running backs are quite cheap. Isaac Redman was cheap on most sites and was by far the cheapest starting running back on Draftstreet and was generally the cheapest option on most other daily sites as well. A lot of sites actually had Dwyer as more expensive than Redman, implying they believe Dwyer will actually have more in the way of offensive production than Redman tonight.

People are doubting the Steelers tonight, especially their ability to score. However, one bad game against an excellent defense does not mean the Steelers are doomed. Going against the grain and taking the Steelers to win or putting some Steelers on your roster may prove to produce dividends.

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