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How Much Does Big Ben’s Loss Affect The Steelers Odds of Winning?

Losing Roethlisberger this week certainly dampened the odds of a Steelers victory. While hopefully the Steelers will rally and defeat the Ravens, let’s analyze how much the oddsmakers value Roethlisberger over Leftwich.

Currently, linesmakers have it so that a $100 bet on Pittsburgh would win about $170 (return $270). This indicates they believe the Steelers have a 37% chance of winning. In terms of a line, the Steelers are 3.5 point home underdogs, so the oddsmakers do think the game will be close.

Had Roethlisberger not been injured, the Steelers likely would have been a 2 to 3 point favorite. For someone just betting on an outright Steelers victory, he would have had to bet probably around $140 to win $100 (return $240 total). This equates to about a 58% chance of the Steelers winning.

It should be noted that bettors often overreact to the loss of a starting quarterback and generally bet against the team with the injury. In this week’s case, most bettors are on the Ravens; hence, the sportsbooks are hoping that the Steelers win. In these cases, often the Sportsbooks will deal a line that is favorable to the sportsbook and artificially inflate the odds of the Ravens winning (since most people are betting on the Ravens anyways). It may be that the Steelers true odds of winning are better than the odds imply.

Looking at the odds though, it seems that losing Big Ben reduced the Steelers’ chances of winning from 58% to 37%. This is a pretty significant decrease; however, it’s not like adding Big Ben would double the their chances of winning. Hopefully, the betting public will be proven wrong and  Leftwich will be serviceable enough for a Steelers victory.

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